The GBP/USD pair showed no noteworthy moves on Monday, and average volatility over the past 30 trading days has fallen to 56 pips. Need I say that is very low? Even the five-day average is higher. The volatility charts therefore reflect what every trader should keep in mind now — market moves are very muted, and this pattern has persisted for roughly two months.

In our EUR/USD analysis, we noted no sustained dollar rally in 2026 — only a sideways range the pair has occupied for about a year. The situation for the pound is essentially the same, only more pronounced. If the euro looks flat with a slight downward tilt, the pound is in a classic sideways consolidation. The multi-year uptrend for GBP/USD began in 2022; the past year has been a pause. So if anyone thinks the US dollar has "seized the initiative" thanks to the Federal Reserve or Middle East geopolitics, they are likely mistaken.

Remember that a key driver of dollar weakness in 2025 was Donald Trump's policies — notably trade policy. But many of the US president's decisions have produced mixed or plainly negative results for the US economy. While GDP growth continues, it is far from the pace seen under Joe Biden. Without the AI sector and massive investments into it, growth would be much weaker. Overall, Trump has failed to solve core problems or deliver on many campaign promises: he has not reshored industry, eliminated the federal deficit, reduced the national debt, turned the trade balance into a surplus, concluded real peace, launched a new "Era of Greatness," substantially improved the labor market, or raised living standards for voters and taxpayers. If anything, the opposite is true.

As a result, the America that once attracted many now looks much less appealing — and if America is less attractive, its economy is less attractive. Again: only massive tech-sector and AI-related investments have kept the equity market afloat, and the equity market has helped sustain the broader economy.

Therefore, there are, in fact, no existential blows hitting the pound. It has simply been resting for a year and is waiting for market participants to tire of trading the US dollar, after which the long-term uptrend can calmly resume. Unfortunately, flats happen even on weekly timeframes, and when they do, traders must often wait a long time for the next meaningful move.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 66 pips. For the pound/dollar, this value is classified as "medium." Therefore, on Tuesday, September 22, we expect movement inside a range bounded by 1.3302 and 1.3434. The higher linear-regression channel has turned up, indicating an uptrend. The CCI entered the oversold area, warning of a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3367

S2 – 1.3306

S3 – 1.3245

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3428

R2 – 1.3489

R3 – 1.3550

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair maintains an uptrend. Donald Trump's policies will continue to weigh on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term dollar strength. So far, 2026 has been positive for the dollar due to geopolitics and inflation, which have driven capital into safe havens and prompted the Fed to return to monetary tightening. However, on the weekly timeframe, price remains flat between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, supporting expectations of continued sterling appreciation in the medium term. Long positions with targets 1.3489 and 1.3550 can be considered while price is above the moving average. Price below the moving average would justify bearish trading, with targets of 1.3306 and 1.3302.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means the trend is currently strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted at present;

Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) are the probable price channel within which the pair will spend the next 24 hours based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.